Joshua Brown makes some arguments about the salad days of Facebook being over, and one I completely buy:
Joshua Brown via The Reformed Broker
Something new comes along - It is laughable how seamlessly, completely and quickly Facebook supplanted MySpace - let’s not act like anything on the web is permanently dominant forever. Facebook is picking up major steam in countries like Indonesia and Brazil right now, the rate of new users signing up is breathtaking. But consider that they are pulling people from Google-owned network Orkut and that one day someone else will do the same to them.
Kids rebel against a social network that includes their dorky parents - Can you imagine being 15 years old and being involved in any kind of socializing that involved your parents and aunts and uncles and Sunday school teachers and god knows who else from the dark side? There is a Facebook hipness hourglass somewhere and it has already been turned over…it is only a matter of time before the grains of sand slipping from the top to the bottom become noticeable and the tide turns. The kids will be first, the advertisers will follow. In the end, Facebook will be comprised of dormant and inactive profiles with a majority of its “engagement” coming from people in their forties stalking their exes from high school in the late 80’s. For the younger generation, talking about Facebook at all will become painfully lame. Every generation mocks the one that came before. This moment rapidly approaches, the emptying of that hipness hourglass is inexorable.
I’ve said for years that Facebook is the new AOL, a service that made the big forbidding and vast Internet approachable for the masses, and then was instantly passé. And Brown’s scenario will become truth as soon as something un-Facebook-like and hard for grown-ups to understand pops into existence, and starts spiriting the kids away like the Pied Piper. Kids will defect to be different, and it’s game over in a few years.
His other points have merit too, but I don’t think they matter an iota compared with the cool kids playing in a different park.
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- gbattle said: Josh nailed this post. And I agree, ubiquity will be the gift (revenue) and curse (uncool) for Facebook. The lingering question for me is has the compression of cool accelerated or stood still for Facebook - are they extending the inevitable?
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