Showing all posts tagged: economic

Signs of the next downturn and the new depression:

Motoko Rich and Stephanie Crawford via NYTimes.com

Some signs suggest borrower distress. Credit card delinquencies increased for the first time in almost two years in the third quarter, according to credit bureau TransUnion, though the delinquency rates are still very low. And mortgage delinquencies were about 6 percent at the end of 2011, down a little from a year ago but higher than earlier last year, compared with the prerecession rate of 1.5 to 2 percent.

“That’s a long way to go to get us back to a steady state,” said Steve Chaouki, group vice president for financial services for TransUnion.

Another crucial factor holding back the American consumer is that many people who borrowed heavily during the boom to buy cars or appliances, or take vacations, are still repaying debt and cannot win approval for new loans, so they must find other ways to pay for things.

Though shopping has remained relatively strong, the level of consumer debt in October was at its highest in two years, meaning people are buying on credit rather than with income. And the savings rate in November was 3.5 percent, the lowest since 2007, which suggests shoppers are also buying with savings.

“We don’t think this is sustainable and expect slowing spending growth going forward,” Colin McGranahan, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, wrote in a note to clients that reviewed numbers for November.

Another credit bubble fueling the small increase in buying is a leading indicator of a new round of foreclosures or more people walking away from mortgages in 2012.

In some areas, well over 50% of the homes are so underwater that their ‘owners’ will never see a return on the investment they are making. They should walk away, rationally, despite the hassles involved, and despite the fact that 81% of Americans feel it is immoral to not pay your mortgage when you can.

emergentfutures:

World Bank says ‘more dangerous’ times ahead

“We are in the early moments of a new and different storm - it’s not the same as 2008,” said Mr Zoellick, referring to the global financial crisis, in an interview with the Weekend Australian newspaper.

Full Story: ABC

Anational Currencies

Four Economic Benchmarks We Need Now - Umair Haque

New currencies. A currency is an especially cruel a form of collective punishment, an implicit tax. In the aftermath of inevitable, regular-as-clockwork financial crisis, everyone holding a currency suffers, whether or not they had anything to do with said crisis. When currencies are created that are independent of countries and regions, people will [have] the choice to escape the bone-headed organizations and markets within them. That, in turn, will set incentives for better behavior. Creating “product”? Stop. Create a currency instead.

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Prosperianism? What About Breaking Out Of The Growth Cycle?

Umair tries ju-jitsu on the debate between Demand Siders and Supply Siders and the inexorable slide toward austerity instead of stimulus:

Umair Haque, Real Prosperity Doesn’t Come From Stimulus — Or Austerity
Yet, a great schism divides them [economists]. Each side’s answers seem incomplete to the other. On one side, Keynesians. On the other, “austerians.” The former argue: spend, spend, spend, for the real problem in the economy’s a lack of demand — not enough buying power to create jobs and trade. The latter argue: cut, cut, cut, for the real problem’s a lack of supply — a shortage of financial capital, to fuel ever-growing debt.
[…]
I’d like to propose a third position in this great debate. Call it “prosperianism.” Prosperians believe the economy’s central problem isn’t a lack of demand, or a lack of supply — but a lack of purpose. Prosperianism’s foundation can be summed up in a single sentence: 21st century economies can, should, and must have a higher purpose than product.
Prosperians believe that the real challenge of the 21st century isn’t kickstarting “growth” and churning out more “product” — but reconceiving what is growing, how it grows, and why it grows. The prosperian agenda is redefining prosperity, so it’s more meaningful, authentic, and durable. It’s not about just restarting the same old industrial-age engine of GDP, but building a better one.
Who might be said to be a prosperian? The economist Richard Florida, whose work discusses the central role of creativity in prosperity; the eminent Peter Senge, whose The Necessary Revolution fleshes out a wholer prosperity; John Hagel, whose The Power of Pull explains how to redraw the boundaries of industrial age business as usual; Gary Hamel, whose The Future of Management is an ode to higher purpose; and a raft of visionary CEOs including Timberland’s Jeff Swartz, Interface Carpet’s Ray Anderson, and Nike’s Mark Parker. Not all prosperians agree on exactly what the “right” higher purpose should be, but what they do agree on is the need to move past yesterday’s tired debates about product, and begin having a better one, about purpose.
Without a higher purpose for the economy, the door to creating the industries, companies, jobs — and advantages — of the 21st century will remain closed.

Hmmm. I am all for finding meaning, but I don’t think prosperianism is diametrically opposite the underlying motives of Supply and Demand Siders. It seems like Umair is stepping out of the frame of reference that seems to trap traditional economist, but I don’t think it does, really.

Stepping out of the framework requires questioning growth itself.

All our efforts — either Supply or Demand Side, or even Prosperian — are about growth: getting the economy growing again. Getting people to buy, businesses to make, and cash to flow.

We may have reached an era when any growth — based on higher yields of food, increased production of durable goods, and finding and exploiting new reserves of raw materials — involves more negatives that the benefits it creates.

If we move to an inclusive sort of economics, where the full costs of growth are calculated — from the environmental and societal, not just financial — we may be in a period where growth itself is the prime cause of our economic troubles.

Bruce Sterling said that the ‘frontier of the future will be the ruins of the unsustainable.’

Our political and economic frontier is meeting a time in which many of the fundamental premises of industrialism need to be reconsidered, especially growth.The systems we have created have led to overpopulation of the Earth, because the cost of people has dropped and their potential to produce and consume good and services have increased. So long as the world affords us abundant materials, cheap energy, and low cost waste disposal, we’re golden. As soon as these are less available, the whole system becomes unsupportable.

So, I pose it back to Umair: is there a real alternative to the Supply Side/Demand Side dialectic? What sort of economics do we need for a no-growth economy, presuming that we are headed there? What sorts of motivations are needed to slow population growth, depredation of the world’s resources, and the side effects of industrialism?

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